Forget the BRICs is time for CHI-CHI !!!

Why invest in Chile and China?

In his famous "Fooled by Randomness" Nicholas Taleb argues (persuasively) that news have become noise. The more "news" we consume, the lower its information content. Under this premise, investors should read the newspaper only once a year.

Here is a twist on that... If I want to make money, I should look into long term leading indicators of business activity and leave it there.

According to the Global Entrepreneurship Research Association, GERA, The entrepreneurial intention (% of population that intends to start a business in the next 3 years) of Chile and China (CHI-CHI) is much higher than most countries. What is not to like? Over 40% of Chileans and Chinese are considering starting a business.

This is nothing short of remarkable if we consider than in 1970 both countries were under Marxist governments...

About 20% of the population in Brazil and Thailand are planning a business, not bad...

Not surprisingly European countries do not exhibit much appetite for business,

Are there other countries more entrepreneurial than CHI-CHI?  Not that many

Only Uganda, Colombia and Ecuador...

Latin America on the move? Out the 5 most entrepreneurial countries, 3 are from LATAM. Not bad at all..

The cradle of capitalism... sleeps

I guess that once you are rich you don't need to work hard? Am I right?

Chile, economic success political failure

President Pinera at the FT

In a time of easing, Chile thinks of tightening.

When central bankers of the world struggle to find way to inject some life in their ailing economies  authorities in Chile try to find way to cool its economy. The economy is expected to grow around 6% this year and 5% in 2013. Chile's debt has the same rating as Japan and South Korea. FDI in 2012 is up 63% compared to last year.

Unemployment stands around 6.5%, the lowest levels since the late 90s.

The list can go on...see this Bloomberg article for details

Government approval rate?  36% See president Pinera's explanation to the Financial times here.

Government as employer: the good, the bad and the ugly

Federal Government as an employer, In order to look into this issue I looked in the historic data series from the FRED.

The Bad
At the begging of 1966 there were 10.61 million people working for the Federal government, by 2012 this figure had more than double to 21.99 million people. In the 185 quarters, the total number of employees grew in 151 out of 185 quarters in my sample, an astonishing 82%.... The chart below is worth a thousand words...

We can clearly see the recessions of 1980 and the current one. We can see how little impact the recessions of 1990 and 2000 had in federal government employment. Interestingly there seem to be major increases in employment pre crises just to be followed  by drastic cuts... go figure...
The picture is not complete if we simply

The Good
Looking at raw employment figures is misleading. If we look at the federal government jobs as percentage of the population we get a much less frightening picture...
In 1966 around 5% of the populaiton worked for the federal government. This figure climbs to around 7% in the 80s and remains there until 2009. Since then we may be experiencing a decline.

The Ugly

In 1960 only 30% of women worked. As their participation increased, the inactive population shrank.

By the 90s close to 60% of the population was employed... By 2010 the trend seems to be reversing. Think baby boomers and the massive fiscal deficit... more work to do, fewer people to get it done!

Draw your own conclusions. I am going to rest. I need to work hard tomorrow.

Dark pools and unintended consequences

More on the law of unintended consequences

So the story goes something like this... Before computers, all trading was manual, literally, traders would receive a paper list of orders (what to buy and sell) they would take that list to the pit and find counter parties .. Not ideal, not transparent, ... I know... Along came computers and financial derivatives and we thought that the more we traded the better prices we could get... (Better as in more efficient, (more information embedded in the price)).  And trading exploded... 24 x 7 around the world, every possible asset.

Along came HFTs, high frequency traders who use sophisticated computer algorithms to trade securities on a very rapid basis, as in thousands of orders per second... (yes per second). Check this great NYT article about them.  

If more trading was good for the market... then HFT must be very good... right? Wrong! At least that is what some of the big players are saying... It turns out that dark pools (trading that takes place outside regular markets) are growing.  In fact, an estimate says around 30% of all trading volume in the US is conducted in these pools. Very well explained in this FT note.

If the big guns don't like it, why should I?

Maybe we are going back to the human trader...

Chilecon Valley; business climate in Chile versus USA

How refreshing to read a Chilean newspaper...(at least the business section).  Instead of fiscal cliff in the US and austerity in Europe, the news today are about the finalists for Common Pitch 2012 (check their website)...

Chile must be doing something right... So often Latin America is in the news for the wrong reasons. At a time when the US and Europe are closing their borders to immigration, Chile is opening not only the border, but also its wallet. Entrepreneurs from the world are lured to Chilecon Valley with visas, money (USD 40,000) and connections with local venture capital funds. Startup Chile (a global business incubator) is going for its third year. More than 900 entrepreneurs from 37 countries have participated.

Is everything perfect? Far from it, In the article The Lure of Chilecon Valley. the Economist rightfully points to many deficiencies...


With so much darkness around the world.. it is sunny in Chile.

Want to start a business?  Consider Chile! That is not me but Steve Wozniak  saying it.

My candidates for the Nobel 2012

I want Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff to win. See their book "This time is different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly"

Their work helping us understand international financial crises is very important to policy makers and the lay people alike. Their work can be applied, their work can be understood and explained to most people. Their work should be discussed by politicians in this election.

It would be cool to see Steven Levitt  (Freakonomics) win

I would be happy with Stephen Ross or Robert Shiller. One them probably will.

On correlation and LATAM arilines

Fuel up airlines down right?   Let's look at Delta airlines....

Not bad ... USO (the ETF) is used as a proxy (i know,... a bad one) for oil prices.  One up the other one down... moving together otherwise.

But how about this one...  The following chart is for LFL: LATAM airlines, formerly Chilean airlines.

Historic returns

In the stock market as in baseball, is all about odds, below are the numbers...

You make your own decisions,

*I annualized daily returns using 250 trading days

Let's begin with the Dow Jones... by 2012, we had over 100 years of daily observations, close to 30,000 trading days. Two massive global recessions and countless cycles of boom and bust.
The breakdown?

15,208 days the market went up, compared to 13,938 losing days. This means that winnings days are 52.18 percent of the sample.  On average you should expect to make 0.027% per day... It is important to note that on average a negative return is higher than a positive return. You make up the difference because of the extra wining days.



Monthly returns offer a similar picture... there are more positive months than negative ones.. same for years. Interestingly the "winner" percentage goes up as the average return

The DJ is a very narrow index, and not indicative of a diversified portfolio... The next picture is the S&P 500, 1950 to present

Same patterns...

Our parents and grandparents could only dream on international diversification the way we have it now... What do you think would happen with the world in your basket?

Here it goes (dates vary from roughly 10 - 25 years)

Yet another reason to be optimistic on the USA

Not only we are becoming more competitive (thanks to cheap natural gas, rising labor productivity and increasing labor costs abroad)...

Here is a more compelling reason. We are the most competitive in beer!

According to the Economist chart of the day it takes an american worker about 6 minutes of labor to get a beer...

We should be done for the day in about an hour!!!  Life in India or the Philippines pales in contrast..

Seriously now... The low cost advantage of China is fading.

The prestigious BCG (Boston Consulting Group) projects that by around 2015, the U.S. will have an export cost advantage of 5 percent to 25 percent over Germany, Italy, France, the U.K. and Japan in a range of industries. Among the biggest drivers of this advantage will be the costs of labor, natural gas, and electricity. As a result, the U.S. could capture 2 percent to 4 percent of exports from the four European countries and 3 percent to 7 percent from Japan by the end of the current decade. This would translate into as much as $90bn in additional U.S. exports per year, according to BCG's analysis.

Look at this video from Hal Sirkin at the Boston Consulting Group.

So... How much do companies pay in taxes?

Now that we know how much Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney pay in taxes, one should ask how much do firms pay...

In textbooks, it is always assumed a flat 40% tax rate.

It turns out that this figure is far from realistic. The following chart from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis shows that the number is much more likely to be in the late teens (17 to be exact).

The picture is not much better on the personal side....Textbooks say it is 35% for top earners and 10% at the bottom.  Look at the following chart prepared using IRS data for 2009, on taxes paid by citizens

Who (besides me off course) is paying taxes?

Use this information wisely.

PIGS vs. BAM !!

Much has been written about the debt levels of the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain). THere is not a half decent blogger/economist who has not predicted their collapse.

Here is another angle.. Compare the PIGS against the BAM... (Brazil, Argentina and Mexico)

Look at this chart... Manufacturing labor costs ..I added the US and Germany for reference.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of International Labor Comparisons, International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in Manufacturing, 2010

Stocks, lemonade and pizza

Most companies’ beginnings are humble. Those who survive the treacherous first years find themselves needing money. Remember your sister’s lemonade stand? (If you don’t have a sister, or she did not have a stand, just humor me). They need money to grow (if you want to sell more lemonade you need more lemons, and maybe a bigger blender and eventually a refrigerator, a truck, an accountant and a lawyer). In order to get this money, business owners are willing to split their ownership into smaller pieces called shares or stocks… Think pizza

Before the expansion, your sister owned the whole Lemonade stand, 100% of it.

In our case, your sister  is willing to sell a share of her pizza in exchange for the money needed to grow her business. She will no longer own 100%. Depending on how much money she needs she will have to sell more or less shares.  If this is the first time you sister does this sale, it  is called “going public” or IPO, Initial Public Offering

Your sister’s share on the company after the IPO

A shareholder’s share on the company after the IPO

A share of stock is the smallest unit of ownership in a company. If you own a share of a company’s stock, you are a part owner of the company.

Why would anybody buy share on your sister’s lemonade stand?

Share buyers, AKA investors or shareholders buy shares because they believe in the business, they believe that your sister will be a successful lemonade stand owner. In particular they have two basic reasons;

        a)     Your sister is now obligated to share the profits of the lemonade proportionally with all other shareholders. Your sister will send a quarterly check to shareholders. This is called a dividend.

        b)     The investor hopes he or she may be able to re-sell the share at a higher price than he/she paid for in the future. This is called capital gain.

An alternative way to finance her business

What if your sister did not want to let go control/ownership of her company? Did she have any options? The answer is yes. She could have borrowed the money from your parents (bank). We would call them debt holders. In this case your sister needs not to share profits, only to repay what she borrowed (plus interest). 

Separation of Management and Ownership
After a few years, there would be hundred if not thousand of of owners. This makes it practically impossible for  owners (principals) to  run their own company. They must hire managers (agents) to do the work.  Just imagine how long it would take all owners of Toyota trying to agree on what a new model should look like.

An important conflict arises when managers (the agents) entrusted to look after the interests of others (the principals) use their authority or power for their own benefit instead. 

It is a pervasive problem and exists in practically every organization whether a business, church, club, or government. Organizations try to solve it by instituting measures such as tough screening processes, incentives for good behavior and punishments for bad behavior, watchdog bodies, and so on but no organization can remedy it completely because the costs of doing so sooner or later outweigh the benefits of the results. 

Brazil, infrastructure, world cup, olympics and finance

A great piece on the FT showcases the construction boom in Brazil... Stadiums, roads, airports, trains... You name it, they will have to build it... All of the above need a lot of metal

A rising tide lifts all boats, shouldn't Vale be an obvious winner?

What is most telling, for me at least, Brazil loses 10 - 15% of GDP yearly because of bottlenecks in its poor infrastructure... If you think this is an exaggeration, think about this; a trucker on his/her way to the port may spend up to 3-4 days waiting to unload its cargo... A railroad, a port, a road in Brazil, privately built can have a great multiplier effect.

Better yet, Brazil's government does not need to spend the money. Private capital will.

Can this be true? Aren't we reminded by our authorities over and over, the US is in great need to upgrade its infrastructure. The choices we are given are taxes or "no" (as in we will just not do it).


With the World Cup (soccer) and the Olympics around the corner, Brazil's needs are so much greater than the problems we face. How will they do it? Rousneff should be jealous of Obama's problems.

Not quite.

Brazilians are much more pragmatic. They have just auctioned the rights to build and operate new "Sao Goncalo do Amarante" airport. A Brazil-Argentine consortium has 3 years to build an airport and then 25 years to operate it. Read article here.

How much will Brazilian tax payers pay for this?
Nothing, the consortium actually paid the government for the rights.

Are Brazilian unique?
Not quite, Argentina and Chile have had privately operated major airports and ports for many years. In Mexico, consortiums that operate roads are publicly traded companies

Who pays? Those who use airports and roads and ports.

Imagine the possibilities.

From exporter to FDI, Mexico moving into the US

A very nice account by Adam Thomson of the Financial Times on how Mexican businesses are overcoming obstacles to establish themselves in the heart of America.

No longer exporting cheap materials alone.

Read and pass along.

Outlook versus attitude

I just returned from a short trip to my natal Chile where I travel quite often.


News are generally good there, for example, since 2009, the peak of the crisis, a new report shows poverty has declined from 15.1 to 14.4%... Surely the levels are nothing to cheer for, but the trend and the timing matter. The best news is that extreme poverty dropped from 3.7% to 2.9%.


Furthermore, construction is up 11% this year alone (April). Recently, Chile was rated by IESE as the best country in Latin America for private equity and venture capital.

Yet, Chilean consumers don't seem to be too optimistic... Go figure

Insatiable

I have been quiet lately. Busying myself with conferences and summer, I think I have recharged my batteries

Here is a great essay by Robert and Edward Skidelsky regarding our insatiable appetite for more.

Enough is enough

On the power of students

I am generally against group decisions... However there is one I always ask my students to do.

In my intro to finance class I like to ask my students to allocate $100,000 to a number of companies.  I do this at the very beginning of the semester, way before we cover anything related to stock valuation. Students generally look at me funny, humor me while thinking there must be something wrong with me.

I aggregate all their responses and create a weighted portfolio. As the semester moves along we begin talking about stocks, risk and portfolios and little by little I show them their own portfolio. They (and me included) marvel at how good a portfolio can be made by people with little or no background.

This year I decided to start sharing these portfolios in this blog and collecting the data in a more formal way.

We opened the portfolio on February22nd 2012. Since then the S&P500 has climbed from 1357.66 to 1395.95 or 2.82%.

My student generated portfolio? --> 4.16%

See the portfolio for yourself sorted by holdings.

Why everyone should be a finance major

This Sunday's edition of the New York Times Magazine has a short but well written article on Dairy Farming. In short, farming is not local anymore. Therefore all forces from global markets are at play. A farmer in the US today faces an environment as complicated as that of Pepsi or Kia Motors or Johnson and Johnson.
An increase in the price of grains or other feed makes cost go up. Political Risks in Middle east can trigger oil prices changes higher increasing costs, a high dollar makes exports less likely. A recession in Europe means less demand. A rapid economic development in China and Brazil means good news and higher prices.

Just as industrial players have, dairy farming has improved its efficiency dramatically, yet ROE is not there for most farmers.

Finance is ready to help the farmer. This is good news. The bad news is that the farmer does not understand how hedging works.

Large corporations have risk management departmets scouting the enviroment for every risk.

My guess is that in the very near future every medium sized business will have to become serious about financial derivatives. This will create tremendous job opportunities and make the difference between companies that thrive and those fighting for survival.

In the article, Bob Fulper, the farmer summarizes it perfectly. In the past it was possible to work your way out of trouble, "stay in the cowshed a little longer, work harder" "Now if you don't use your head, your hands are not going to help you"

Isn't this the what is at the center of the current struggle?

It does not matter if you want a career in marketing, HR, or dairy farming... We are not in Kansas anymore. We must understand risk.

Consider Finance.

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LBJ	Direxion Daily Latin America Bull 3X Shares ETF
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MLPL	UBS ETRACS 2x Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN
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SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF
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TBZ	UltraShort 37 Year Treasury ETF
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UBR	Ultra MSCI Brazil
UBT	Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF
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UGE	Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares ETF
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UPW	Ultra Utilities ProShares ETF
URE	Ultra Real Estate ProShares ETF
URR	Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN
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UST	Ultra 710 Year Treasury ETF
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UVG	Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares ETF
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UVU	Ultra Russell Mid Cap Value ProShares ETF
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UWM	Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares ETF
UXI	Ultra Industrials ProShares ETF
UXJ	Ultra MSCI Pacific ExJapan
UYG	Ultra Financials ProShares ETF
UYM	Ultra Basic Materials ProShares ETF
VZZB	iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX MidTerm Futures ETN
XPP	Ultra FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares ETF
YCL	Ultra Yen ProShares ETF
YCS	UltraShort Yen ProShares ETF
ZSL	ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF