Why would any young person not invest in a levered ETF?
My first inclination was to agree (I still do)... I did mention that because of compounding the long-term returns would not be exactly 2X or 3X those of the benchmark index. I was not sure how big of a discrepancy this would be so I decided to do some work. I chose UPRO, the well known ETF that aims to give 3X the return of the SP500. It began trading on 6/25/09. Conveniently that is right after the worst of the crisis.
The following chart shows the results of investing $1,000 in both, from 6/29/09 - 1/10/2013.
SP500=60%
UPRO=235%
The winner is... well, this is an easy one. More than XXX, UPRO is almost 4X!!! I don't think I need to point out anything about UPROs volatility
Data from yahoo finance |
Toting up in this case
Bull SP500=60%
Bull UPRO=235%
Bear SP500=-44%
Bear UPRO=-89%
The winner is...hard to tell...
Data form yahoo finance |
I will never say this in my classroom, (too afraid someone will sue me): I am still for the levered way... If you are 20 and have nothing to lose... had you started with $476 on 6/25/09 in UPRO, you would be in the same place as someone who invested $1,000 in SP&500. Young people can worry about re-balancing their portfolios later.
Data from yahoo finance |
It is a probabilistic game... This is from a previous posting on this blog... if the percentage of winners is loaded on my favor, why not take advantage of it and go XXX?
Data from Thomson Reuters |