Reflection: 1968, 1998, and 2025?

Please allow me to share with you a few ideas that keep churning in my head. History rarely moves in straight lines. Instead, it follows cycles—periods of upheaval, transformation, and recalibration. To understand the world today and the potential changes ahead, we can look back at two pivotal years: 1968 and 1998. Each marked a turning point, and as we stand at another crossroads, we must ask: Are we on the verge of another seismic shift? If so, what will define the new era? 1968: A World Divided by Ideology In 1968, the world was in turmoil. The Cold War had split nations into two opposing ideological blocks—a capitalist, democratic West and a communist, state-controlled East. Protests erupted across the globe: in the U.S., the civil rights and anti-war movements questioned authority; in France, workers and students took to the streets; in Czechoslovakia, reformers sought liberalization, only to be crushed by Soviet tanks. The old order struggled to contain these demands for freedom, rights, and self-determination. Yet, despite this division, the global structure was stable. Each side knew its place, and the threat of nuclear war ensured that neither pushed too far. Governments, for better or worse, exercised strong control over economies and societies. There was certainty in the structure, even as revolutions simmered beneath the surface. 1998: The Triumph of Globalization By 1998, the world looked vastly different. The Soviet Union had collapsed (1991), and democracy and free markets seemed to have won. Trade flourished, technology accelerated, and economic interdependence linked nations in ways that made war seem impractical. China, still under communist rule, had embraced market reforms, integrating into the global economy. The European Union expanded, offering a new model of cooperation. In the United States, prosperity soared as the internet revolutionized commerce and communication. Globalization created unprecedented economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty, but it also introduced new challenges: wealth disparities widened, industries shifted overseas, and financial markets became fragile. The world was no longer divided into two ideological camps, but new tensions emerged. Who would benefit from this prosperity? Would the democratic order hold, or would inequalities and cultural divides create new fault lines? Today: A Return to Division? Now, in the 2020s, the world seems to be shifting again. The certainty of the post-1998 era is unraveling. Some key developments: Rising geopolitical tensions: The U.S. and China are locked in strategic competition, reminiscent of the Cold War. Nations are forming economic and political alliances based on security rather than open markets. Erosion of democratic consensus: While democracy expanded after 1998, it is now facing challenges from within. Polarization, distrust in institutions, and the rise of authoritarian-leaning governments suggest a rethinking of political structures. Economic realignments: The once-unquestioned power of free markets is being challenged. Countries are reshoring industries, questioning trade dependencies, and emphasizing national resilience over pure economic efficiency. Technology as a new battlefield: In 1968, nuclear weapons defined power. In 1998, trade did. Today, technology—AI, data, and cyber capabilities—determines influence. Are we returning to a world divided into two ideological camps? Not necessarily in the same way as 1968, but we do see the rise of competing political and economic models. On one side, a coalition of liberal democracies continues to promote openness, while on the other, authoritarian-leaning states emphasize control, stability, and state-led economic growth. Looking Ahead: Are We at Another Turning Point? Just as 1968 and 1998 were moments of transition, today’s world is shifting toward something new. The open question is: What will this new era look like? Will democracy and free markets adapt, or will rising inequalities, social unrest, and geopolitical tensions force a new structure upon us? For students, the lesson is clear: history does not move in one direction. Every period of stability is eventually disrupted by forces that demand change. The choices made today—about governance, economic policy, technology, and international relations—will define the next 30 years just as 1968 and 1998 shaped the decades that followed them. If the world is indeed shifting, the key question is: Will this transition bring greater prosperity and fairness, or deeper divisions and conflict? The answer, as always, depends on the decisions YOU make now.

How to calculate average rates earned on a lump sum?

 Imagine you invest $10,000 this year in a fund that promises the following returns over the next 5 years:

Your money would grow thusly.

It would be wrong to simple average the rates per year since this ignores any compounding. We use the function "RATE" from excel.

Wrong approach: (10 + 8 + 6 + 4 +2) / 5 =   6%

Correct approach: =RATE(5 , 0 , -10000 , 13358.44) = 5.962%

assigning a value based on price

 Dear students,  

I was asked for help with the grading tab, specifically on how to weigh each exam based on the performance. The example below should help. Is about allocating money according to price. 

Using vlookup in a range

 Imagine you are looking for the perfect sparkling wine. You have a database that looks like this.

The set has thousands of bottles to chose from. You want to begin the process by eliminating those deemed too cheap or too expensive. Your price ranges are as follow.

 
Your function should tell excel: Go look at the price that is stored in cell "G2", get it and find it in "Table array". Once you find it, bring the value stored in column 2 of "Table array". 

One problem is that vlookup can not understand "$15 - up". vlookup can look for only 1 value, so the first thing you want to do is to change those price ranges to a single price that vlookup could read.  Like the one below.

In red you see what does not work, in green what excel understands. It is key that the table array is sorted from low to high!

Excel will look place every price between $0 and $7 as "Cheap", anything between $7 and $15 as value... and so on. So in practice you create ranges in a vertical way.

The formula would look like this.

 

How to calculate the total interest paid over the life of a loan?

Assume you are going to buy a house that is for sale at $500,000. You have saved $100,000 for downpayment so the mortage will be for $400,000.

The bank quotes you two options. A 30 year, monthly payments loan at 6% or a 15 year loan at 5%.

Your friends tell you that if you go 15 years the total interest paid will be hundreds of thousands less.

You don't believe them so decide to do the math.

Easy way. Not surprisingly, there is an app for that. Excel has a formula.

CUMIPMT(rate, nper, pv, start_period, end_period, type)

For the 30 year loan it would be

CUMIPMT(6%/12 , 12*30 , $400,000, 1, 360, 0) 

Hard way. Do an amortization table and add all interest payments.

Curious about the answer?

Check the spreadsheet, you can make a copy and change it to your needs.

Total interest paid xls

What is a Dutch auction and how does it work?

A Dutch auction is way of offering/selling of goods to the public. The seller offers the lot to the general public. The actual price of the whole set is determined after all offers have been received at the level at which all shares could be sold. The public or buyers are supposed to state how many items thye want and at what price do they want them. 

The following example would illustrate it.

Assume the seller is trying to sell  10,000 shares of Ford Motor Company (F).

Buyers submit their orders...

Merida -- 1,500 shares at $15.00  each

Peter Pan --- 2,500 shares at $14.25 each 

Pop - Eye -- 2,500 shares at $14.00 each

Donald Duck --3,500 shares at $13.90 each

Kim Possible -- 4,000 shares at $13.85 each

Ben Ten -- 3,000 shares at $13,77 each.

... ...

In this case, the 10,000 shares are sold to Merida, Peter Pan, Pop Eye and Donald Duck for $13.90.  The whole lot can be sold. 

 

 

What is the cutoff GPA for a job in investment banking?

There is no magic bullet.  On the one hand, a 4.0 GPA does not guarantee an interview much less a job.

On the other hand, a 3.4 is not a death sentence either. In general anything above 3.5 is fine.  Make sure you list both your GPA and concentration GPA... if your GPA is 3.5 but your concentration GPA is 3.9, you have a story to tell.

Much more important than grades (I think) are internships and past experiences. Actions speak louder than words.

Having an inside champion (a person that can support your application) is also important. 

Done...

There is a more basic question. Why do you want investment banking job? Is it salary, prestige? Or is the the job itself?  The latter is much better answer than the former.  If you simply like the perks of the job you are in for a rough ride. If you like the job itself, you will find many ways to approach it.

If you "love" the job, then you need explain what have you done to prepare for such a career, job.

For example.

How many investment bankers do you know? 

How many of them would answer a phone call from you?

Have you interned at an investment bank?

Have you taken a directed study on the subject?

Have you volunteered at local foundation? Startup accelerators etc?

How many local organizations are you a member of?

Have you taken online courses on the subject? Podcasts, seminars? 

Are you familiar with the deal flow in your local community?

Have you taken courses on Real Estate, Valuation?

If you just discover your passion, no problem. 

Using a sports analogy. You are applying for a spot in the team.  You are competing against candidates that have been playing / preparing for the game since high school. They have gone to the gym, cross trained, etc. How does your application compare?   You are not disqualified just because you just started. There are many examples of late bloomers. 

But you will have to convince the coach to give you a chance to try out.  Make sure your first job(s) are stepping stones into the path.